Assessment and Forecast of Economic Development Priorities of RA
This study aims to methodologically justify the priorities of Armenia's economic development, assess the necessary conditions for this purpose, and present the results of the analysis in the framework of the scenario approach for obtaining forecasts and assessments of key economic indicators.
For a systematic presentation of the problem the study analyzes the macroeconomic situation in Armenia and development priorities. It presents the ways of the development of foreign trade activities, studies the impact of economic growth on poverty reduction in Armenia. For this purpose we assessed the dynamics of labor and birth rates. We developed a dynamic general equilibrium model for the economy of Armenia that allows assessing the economic development priorities.
The use of econometric and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE) provides an opportunity to formulate scientifically based direction of socio-economic development for the Armenian economy, which takes into account the risks and uncertainties inherent to Armenia's economy the most.
To forecast the options of socio-economic development of Armenia we use modern economic and mathematical models which are essential to economic forecasts. System analysis of obtained indicators helps to ensure that the medium-term and short-term objectives and projections are consistent with forecasts that have long-term trend and are presented as a single entity. It ensures the coordination of development and implementation of both long-term strategies and programs, and systematic analysis of the individual sectors of the economy, taking into account their interlinkages, relevant objectives, dates and events.